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When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Barack Obama meet at their upcoming state dinner Thursday, a third party might be at the negotiating table: Mexico.
While the talks are widely expected to cover a range of issues, from the war in Syria, to creating a more porous Canadian-U.S. border, and the softwood lumber dispute, the heart of the discussions will revolve around climate change.
John Kirton, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said Monday the talks have a broad agenda. “But at the centre, and the one by which its success will be judged, is Trudeau’s central initiative, and that’s dealing with climate change and clean energy security.”
And while the talks are bilateral between Canada and the U.S., Kirton believes that the two leaders will discuss how to link any climate change and clean energy initiatives with Mexico.
All three leaders stand to gain.
Kirton told National Observer that Trudeau made some “big and bold” promises at Paris about controlling Canada’s carbon and doing so in a way “bigger and better and faster than Mr. Harper had.”
But a lack of unanimous consensus between the provinces over a national carbon tax means Trudeau is unable to do much quickly within Canada.
“So, here, a week later, this is his one big chance to be big and bold and fast on a broader trilateral North American front,” Kirton said.
And while Obama’s taken on climate change was his major priority in office in his last year, the American judicial system has stymied his plans to bring in regulation. In early February the Supreme Court blocked the president’s bid to regulate emissions from coal-fired power plants.
“Trudeau has a very sympathetic and genuinely committed partner, and vice-versa for Obama,” said Kirton, who is, with Ella Kokotsis, the author of The Global Governance of Climate Change: G7, G20 and UN Leadership.
For its part, Mexico is eager to move its oil and gas into the North American market. And both Mexico and the U.S. offer a lot of clean energy in the form of solar and wind. “The quicker we move that up north, that will warm Justin’s heart,” Kirton noted, who says a great opportunity exists for compatibility between the three countries.
The Three Amigos have more recently been "no amigos"
Canadian historian and author of a two-volume biography of Pierre Trudeau, John English agrees that the bilateral talks could include Mexico. He points out the framework already exists with the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Beyond that, Mexico’s has had a rough ride during the presidential campaign with Republican candidate Donald Trump threatening to build a wall between the two countries and make Mexico pay for it.
“Obama would want to involve Mexico given the fact the some Americans are so troubling the Mexicans about the future with walls, barriers and all kinds of other things.”
Canada and Mexico’s relations became strained in 2009 when the then-Harper government stipulated Mexican travelers had to carry visas when visiting Canada. The refusal to lift the requirement led the Mexican ambassador to Canada in 2013 to say that his country was “really mad.”
English said, “It was once the Three Amigos and now in the last two years there’s been no amigos at all. It’s been pretty much daggers drawn, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see some sort of re-emphasis on the North American relationship.”
Anthony Swift, head of the Natural Resource Defense Council’s (NRDC) Canada Project, said in a teleconference Monday, “Perhaps the biggest story here is the US and Canada are embarking on a new conversation on climate and clean energy and I think we’re going to be looking for additional action in the coming months.”
The Washington, D.C.-based NRDC particularly wants to see the two leaders commit to protecting the Arctic from oil and gas drilling, shipping, and commercial fishing.
Softwood lumber agreement unlikely to be renewed during talks
Other issues on the table include Canada’s involvement in the Syria mission; and the softwood lumber dispute.
When it comes to the former, having recently withdrawn its air support just after the Paris terrorist incident, Canada looks out of step, Kirton said.
However, he noted that Canada is much better known for providing boots on the ground and training local authorities. “The critical need if we’re going to contain and control, degrade and eventually defeat the Islamic State is not six, CF-18 aircraft.”
As for the softwood lumber dispute, it’s widely agreed the leaders are likely to leave it alone for fear of putting a Democratic candidate in jeopardy over the issue. Therefore, the leaders are for the time being unlikely to renew the current, expired out-of-court settlement reached between the two countries.
A robust U.S. housing market along with low interest rates is leading to more housing starts and in turn more lumber needed to build them. Kirton said much of that lumber is coming from U.S.-owned multinational firms in Canada.
For the moment Canada is free to export the wood, which enrages the U.S. Lumber Coalition. The latter maintains Canada’s softwood lumber market is unfairly subsidized.
As part of the now expired 2006 agreement the coalition is not allowed to launch an action against Canada for one year after expiration of the agreement.
Despite all that, Kirton said, “Of course somebody on the campaign stump - Donald Trump comes to mind - is going to say, ‘See, they’re stealing American jobs.
“They have to handle that one by agreeing to live by the current rules until at least after the election and then put a more formal regime in place.”
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