Will the next wave of Ontario’s electric vehicles run on clean power?

Ontario’s political leaders are unanimously promoting electric vehicles (EVs) in their election platforms. But if the electricity that powers those vehicles continues to come from burning fossil fuels, the province won’t reap the full environmental benefit of EVs, the Ontario Clean Air Alliance says.

“If we’re going to get the maximum benefit of electric vehicles, we’ve got to have a clean electricity supply,” said Jack Gibbons, chair of the alliance.

The environmental advocacy group surveyed the province’s Progressive Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Green parties about where they stand on generating electricity from natural gas, a fossil fuel. Only three committed to phasing out Ontario’s gas plants.

The NDP promised an electricity grid with net-zero emissions by 2030. The Liberals pledged to bring electricity emissions "as close to zero as possible by 2030.” The Green Party plans to make Ontario’s electricity “emission-free as quickly as possible,” aiming for a gas phaseout by 2030. The Progressive Conservatives did not answer the survey and did not respond to requests for comment from Canada’s National Observer.

Affordability and reliability were the top concerns for all three parties that responded.

Ontario used to get 25 per cent of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. However, in 1997, Gibbons formed the alliance to campaign against coal, and the province’s last coal-fired plant closed in 2014, leaving Ontario with one of North America’s cleanest electricity systems. At the time, Gibbons said, transitioning to gas-fired electricity made sense.

Now, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives plan to double-down on gas-fired electricity generation to meet future demand. As a result, planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation will more than quadruple by 2030, according to Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO).

If that happens, Ontario will lose 30 per cent of the progress it made by phasing out coal.

“If you have an increasing percentage of your electricity generated with fossil fuels, that undermines the activities of a variety of sectors in the society,” said Peter Tabuns, NDP candidate for Toronto-Danforth and former NDP energy and climate critic. “Ford's position of not committing to greening the system undermines the goals.”

In 2020, the alliance spearheaded a campaign calling on the Ford government to phase out the province’s gas plants. Thirty-two municipalities supported the campaign. Many cities have said they will not be able to meet their own goals to fight climate change unless Ontario stops using fossil fuels for electricity.

“For us, it was always a transition option to get off dirty coal and move toward 100 per cent renewable energy,” said Gibbons.

Gibbons, a former Toronto Hydro commissioner, maintains Ontario can phase out gas-fired electricity by 2030 by importing more hydro from Quebec and investing in renewable energy projects in Ontario.

“Given the rapid decline in the costs of both solar and wind, in particular, and storage options, Ontario is well-positioned to significantly increase electricity supply that is clean, affordable and renewable,” said Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

Critics have said the renewable options are too risky and too expensive.

A 2020 report by the IESO, a Crown corporation that oversees the province’s power system, stated phasing out gas-fired generation by 2030 would cause blackouts and add $100 to monthly residential electricity bills.

But the Ontario Clean Air Alliance said the IESO cherry-picked the information in the report as a “scare tactic.” Draft documents obtained by the alliance through a freedom-of-information request showed the final IESO report excluded two previously considered scenarios. One scenario estimated that phasing out gas would only raise electricity rates by three per cent once future increases in the federal carbon tax were taken into account. Another found phasing out the gas plants could decrease costs by as much as eight per cent with investments in energy efficiency, energy storage and new wind power.

Gibbons said this shows phasing out the gas plants can be “good for the environment and your pocketbook” if the government is willing to commit to renewable energy.

Outgoing Energy Minister Todd Smith directed the IESO to develop an “achievable pathway to phase out natural gas generation and achieve zero emissions in the electricity system.” That report isn’t due until November.

In an emailed statement, Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca said the Liberals would “transition as quickly as possible to a fully clean energy supply while maintaining reliability and affordability, including by banning new natural gas plants and phasing out our reliance on gas for baseload power."

The Liberals, NDP and Greens all acknowledged the gas plants could be used as a backup source of electricity.

The Ontario provincial election is on June 2.