Canadians would vote for Kamala Harris in U.S. election, if they could

If Canadians could vote in the U.S. election, a majority would choose to send Kamala Harris to the White House.

In a new survey from polling firm Leger, 64 per cent of Canadian respondents said if they could cast a ballot, they’d put their support behind vice-president Harris while 21 per cent would support former president Donald Trump. Fifteen per cent weren't sure what they would do. 

Those who intend to vote Conservative in the next Canadian election were split on where their hypothetical ballot would land. Forty-five per cent would back Trump while 42 per cent said they’d vote for Harris. 

Canadians 55 and older, Quebecers and women were more likely to support Harris. 

The razor-thin race to the Oval Office is less than two weeks from the finish line following a tumultuous campaign season that saw President Joe Biden remove his name from the Democratic ticket, a surge of support around Harris and two assassination attempts on Trump. 

Seventy per cent of Canadian respondents in the new poll were interested in the current U.S. election, with Liberal voters and people 55 and older more likely to be gripped by the American political saga.

The U.S. is Canada's closest neighbour and largest trading partner. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S and 60 per cent of Canada's gross domestic product is derived from trade.

Both Republicans and Democrats have protectionist policies that could result in ripple effects on Canada. 

Trump proposed a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff as the centrepiece of his agenda. A report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggested the Republican leader's suggested duties would reduce the size of the economy between 0.9 and one per cent, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

It's expected Harris would follow the path laid by President Biden, who kept tariffs from the first Trump administration despite promises to reverse them. Harris would likely also continue the Biden administration's Buy American procurement rules.

Harris has campaigned on her vote against the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, saying it didn't do enough to protect American workers and the environment. 

Both the Republicans and Democrats have said they would push a review of the trilateral trade pact in 2026. 

Sixty-two per cent of Canadians said they believe that a Harris victory would be the best outcome for Canada.

Canadians respondents to the poll believed Harris would perform better than Trump on all issues, particularly climate change, trade relations with Canada, immigration and the U.S. economy.

Respondents also said they believed the vice-president would do better with national security and the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Most Canadians — 65 per cent — were worried about potential violence and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election.

Trump has refused to publicly commit to accepting the results of the upcoming White House election. He recently called the Jan. 6 attack, when his supporters stormed Capitol Hill after his 2020 loss, "a day of love."

While most Canadians have an interest in the outcome of their close neighbour's election, it doesn’t mean they will be watching it all play out.

Forty-two per cent said they wouldn't be watching election night but will follow the results after. Fifteen per cent have no interest at all.

The Leger poll gathered input from 1,562 Canadian adults in an online survey between Oct. 18 and 21. The poll cannot be assigned a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.