Doug Ford doesn't need a mandate — he needs an excuse

By early February, Ontario could be plunged into a winter election nobody wants. Nobody, that is, except premier Doug Ford and his party, who see an opportunity to use the election of Donald Trump in the US to wrongfoot the opposition and lock in another majority government. It’s crass, cynical stuff – an election call as craven as it is unnecessary.

Ford claims he needs a “strong mandate” from voters to manage Trump and his tariff threat against Canada. That’s bogus. He’s been telegraphing an early election for months, long before Trump won and the tariff threat became a clear and present danger.

While Ford most definitely needs a plan to deal with Trump, encompassing both a retaliatory response and support measures for Ontarians who’ll suffer from a trade war, he doesn’t need an election or a “mandate” to enact either. In a parliamentary democracy, the government governs as long as it has the confidence of the legislature — a majority of which is already made up of his own party. As long as members of the provincial parliament support the government’s spending program and other critical legislation, the premier has all the support he needs. If the people don’t like it, they’ll have a chance to voice their displeasure during the next election, which, by law, must be held by June 2026, or sooner.

An early election in Ontario would be about one thing and one thing only: securing power for Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. As things stand, Ford’s party enjoys about 40 per cent support in the polls, well ahead of the second-place Liberals at 28 per cent, and plenty enough to lock in another majority government. But the Liberals are slowly getting their organizational act together, which must make Ford nervous — all the better for him to force voters to polling places in March.

Of late, Ford has been playing Captain Canada, speaking for the federation against Trump and contra holdout Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has been bowing to the 47th president. Ford has counselled a tough response to Trump and threatened to cut off electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin. He’s supported the federal government in keeping all options on the table and staying mum about the details of their bargaining plans. 

That’s the stick. He’s also been dangling the carrot of “Fortress Am-Can,” a comprehensive plan for cooperating with the US on border security, trade, and energy security. And though that may appeal to many of the 36 states who rank Canada first among their export markets, as well as the others who rely on cross-border trade and a shared security apparatus, there’s no guarantee it’ll catch the ear of Trump, whose worldview is zero-sum, us-versus-them – and we’re the “them.” 

As the “them,” here, Canada needs a clear, predictable plan for the months ahead. One reason to forego an early Ontario election is stability. Ford ought to make use of the majority he has and deal with the Trump threat without introducing unnecessary uncertainty, especially as things stand federally. Justin Trudeau will be out by mid-March after the Liberals choose a new leader, and the country is expecting a federal election to follow soon after, though it’s not guaranteed. In short, there’s little predictability in leadership and direction federally, so it would be nice to at least know what the plan is for the country’s most populous province and biggest economy. Steady hand on the tiller and all that.

But Ontario had an election in the summer of 2022 and Ford won a bigger majority than he had previously. That gives Ford and Ontario plenty of time to think through Trump – and plenty of continuity. It also gives him time to work with whoever is leading the federal government as they craft their response to Trump. With a majority, Ford isn’t going anywhere and doesn’t lack control of the legislative agenda. He can do more or less whatever he pleases in the next 16 months without needing to rush things. If anything, an early election invites more chaos than we need.

The simplest explanation for Ford’s early election gambit is likely the most accurate. He’s  up in the polls now but wary of the opposition and the ravages of time (voters do get tired of you eventually, just ask Justin Trudeau). He wants to lock in another majority today, that would likely guarantee him power until 2029 and, perhaps, set his party up for a transfer of power to a new premier as Ford’s ministry approaches its 10th anniversary in 2028. 

Ford’s plan could be good political strategy, but it has nothing to do with securing a mandate or doing what’s best for anyone or anything except Doug Ford and his party. And it does carry some risk, historically. In 1990, Ontario Liberal premier David Peterson was way up in the polls. He called an early election to capitalize on his party’s popularity and the opposition’s lack of preparedness — and was sent packing by an electorate that resented being sent to the polls early. He lost his own seat and Ontarians gave NDP leader Bob Rae a majority government and what Ford would call, I guess, a strong mandate.