Good morning!

The Anthropocene is here, and this Ontario lake proves it. Canada’s climate policy hit a speed bump at the Stampede. And Doug Ford’s Greenbelt plans could cut off important routes for wildlife in Ontario.

This week, a big conference on liquefied natural gas (LNG) drew industry experts from around the world to the West Coast. These types of events are often upbeat, filled with optimistic predictions for the future. But if news reports are any indication, speakers at the Vancouver summit gave a more clear-eyed assessment of the industry’s uncertain fate — and what that might mean for Canadian projects hoping to jump into the business before LNG’s ever-shrinking window of opportunity disappears. My colleagues Rochelle Baker and Matteo Cimellaro covered some big developments, on land and at sea, that are set to shape the industry’s future in Canada and beyond.

As always, you can let me know what you think of this newsletter at [email protected].

Have a great weekend and stay safe!

— Dana Filek-Gibson

Looking for more CNO reads? You can find them at the bottom of this email.

A shot across the bow for LNG

The rise of renewables is set to cut LNG demand by 2030 and Europe’s war-induced gas shortage is unlikely to last more than 10 years. So say industry experts, who predict Canada’s LNG export projects will face an uphill battle to stay competitive in the global market.

At home, West Coast projects, many in the early stages of development, are at a critical moment for attracting financing, one expert told my colleague Matteo Cimellaro. And in Asia, where Canada hopes to sell its LNG to countries scrambling to cut their climate pollution, there is a high possibility cost will outweigh environmental standards as the deciding factor when it comes to purchasing LNG.

If LNG’s future is shaky on land, its fate on the high seas doesn’t look so good, either. Last week, the International Maritime Organization took a huge step to curb its rise as a fuel for boats and ships. The United Nations body set new targets for the maritime industry, which includes everything from container ships and oil tankers to cruise boats and passenger ferries. The targets aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost the use of technologies, fuels and energy sources that produce zero or near-zero emissions. If all goes to plan, the maritime industry will reach net zero by roughly 2050.

While the IMO’s old regulations focused exclusively on lowering carbon dioxide emissions, the new rules took a big step toward tackling climate pollution by accounting for another greenhouse gas wreaking havoc on our near-term emissions-reduction goals. Methane — the main component in natural gas — is roughly 84 times more potent than CO2 in the atmosphere over the short term, making those emissions especially troublesome if countries are going to drastically cut climate pollution by 2030 as promised. (When it’s burned, natural gas releases CO2 into the atmosphere, but it also emits methane when it leaks out of pipelines and storage tanks before it’s burned.)

With the shipping industry’s methane emissions ballooning in recent years, LNG has fast become a problem for its pollution-cutting goals. Both the shipping and fossil fuel industries use it as a “transition” fuel for vessels in a bid to ditch dirtier fuels. It’s true LNG emits less carbon dioxide and fewer harmful air pollutants than traditional heavy fuel oil, and it was previously an attractive — and affordable — alternative. But other, cleaner alternatives — some of which are in varying stages of development — include wind, hydrogen and ammonia, a gas made up of nitrogen and hydrogen.

Sticking with LNG prolongs the use of planet-warming fossil fuels in the shipping industry and sinks money into infrastructure that will become worthless in the energy transition. The World Bank anticipates LNG will play only a limited role as a shipping fuel before 2030. As a result, research suggests the LNG ships that already exist could represent up to $850 billion in losses by the end of the decade.

Now, the IMO’s new emissions rules help to push the maritime industry away from the fossil fuel. Though LNG is still allowed, the new regulations make it a less attractive option, one expert told my colleague Rochelle Baker this week.

“It’s not that LNG won’t be allowed, it’s just that the market won’t be as strong as current projections suggest.”

More CNO reads

Canada’s Conservatives are courting constitutional chaos. An anti-democratic strain of Trumpism is starting to show itself north of the border, albeit in a very Canadian way, writes columnist Max Fawcett.

Steven Guilbeault is not backing down. The environment and climate change minister is facing fierce opposition from the premiers as Ottawa works to make its clean energy policies a reality, John Woodside reports.

Ontario’s clean power plan is “not really a plan.” As the province moves ahead with more gas-fired power plants, critics point out its latest roadmap doesn’t lay out a clear path to cleaning up the electrical grid or commit to net zero, Cloe Logan reports.

A Ring of Fire road has its day in court. Neskantaga First Nation argues the Ontario government failed to properly consult the community over a road leading to the region, where the province has big plans for mining development, Matteo Cimellaro reports.

Climate change strains the health-care system. How we treat patients is part of the problem, Tori Fitzpatrick reports.

Big Oil can afford to clean up its mess. But a new analysis finds companies will need some arm-twisting before they pay up, Natasha Bulowski reports.

Canada wants a ban on deep-sea mining, too. Countries around the world are pushing for a pause after a Canadian company teamed up with a Pacific island nation to force the creation of industry regulations, Rochelle Baker reports.

Ditch the peat. Isaac Phan Nay talks to gardeners experimenting with more planet-friendly ways to spruce up their soil.