How the prairie elections were won and lost

The elections that took place earlier this month in Canada’s two Prairie Provinces could not have been more different. In Saskatchewan, an extremely popular premier succeeded once again in pushing his main rival out of public life, and launching the official opposition into yet another search for a new leader. In Manitoba, the New Democrats will not be in government for the first time this century, following an election where the Progressive Conservatives were identified as the vehicle that would deliver change.

As part of its final electoral forecast surveys, Insights West asked voters in both provinces to rank six possible motivators for supporting a specific party. The results outline major differences in the way the two incumbent governments attempted to defend their base. One was successful, with star power trumping ideology in Saskatchewan. The other was not, as the desire for stability plummeted to extremely low levels for Manitobans who wanted to return the New Democrats to office.

The results of the final survey in Saskatchewan show just how much Premier Brad Wall has established a lasting emotional connection with voters. More than half of Saskatchewan Party voters (57 per cent) say the party’s leader was their biggest motivator. The numbers for the NDP are particularly low—only 19 per cent say Cam Broten was the main motivator for their vote. In addition, the New Democrats scored poorly on desire for change, which was the biggest motivator for only 13 per cent of voters.

Three-in-ten Saskatchewan Party supporters (30 per cent) say the most important motivator for their vote was the party’s ideas and policies. In contrast, more than half of NDP voters (57 per cent) say ideas and policies were their main motivator.

Other data points from the final survey show why the dominance of Brad Wall’s campaign was never in question. He held a 3-to-1 edge over Broten on the “Best Premier” question, was ahead on all issues and amassed an approval rating of 69 per cent.

In Manitoba, the motivations shifted. More than half of the province’s NDP voters (53 per cent) say the party’s ideas and policies were the main motivator for their vote. Still, even though these voters were supporting the status quo, only nine per cent say they primarily voted out of a desire for stability—a sign of poor leadership. It is a story explained by other numbers, most notably Greg Selinger’s approval rating of 25 per cent, and his distant second place showing on the “Best Premier” question (16 per cent, compared to PC leader Brian Pallister’s 36 per cent).

For supporters of the victorious Progressive Conservatives, ideology took a back seat, with only 32 per cent of these voters saying ideas and policies were their main motivator. One-in-four PC voters (24 per cent) cite a desire for change as the primary reason for their vote. Even supporters of the Liberal and Green parties in Manitoba had higher numbers for ideas and policies (37 per cent for each), with the Greens benefitting from a particularly disgruntled component of the electorate (23 per cent of Green voters said they primarily chose the party out of disgust with other contenders). In short, PC voters were less ideological than all others, but more interested in change.

The conditions that led to the change of government in Alberta last year were not completely present in Manitoba. Pallister had the lead on most issues and in the “Best Premier” question, but his approval was not as high just before his breakthrough win (45 per cent) as it was for Rachel Notley before hers (62 per cent). Still, a sentiment for change was outlined by 67 per cent of Manitobans. Worse still for the New Democrats, 54 per cent of residents said they would be “very upset” if the NDP formed the government again—a proportion that included 34% of those who voted for the Selinger-led NDP in 2011. Simply put, a third of the voters who gave Selinger his last mandate were not ready to see him in power again.

The final contrast in the way the two elections unfolded is a direct result of televised debates. Saskatchewan held one where only Wall and Broten took part. In the final week of the campaign, more than half of Saskatchewanians had no opinion of Liberal Party leader Darrin Lamoureux and Green Party leader Victor Lau.

In Manitoba, where all four party leaders were included in the televised debate, smaller parties grew or floundered. The approval rating for Green Party leader James Beddome improved from 24 per cent to 38 per cent after the debate, and the numbers for Liberal leader Rana Bhokari fell from 26 per cent to 20 per cent. The Greens usually lose steam in the final weeks of campaigns, whether provincial or federal. In Manitoba, the drop was for the Liberals, who were mentioned as an alternative for disgruntled NDP supporters in the early stages of the campaign. The debate performances definitely affected Beddome and Bhokari in Manitoba, while many voters in Saskatchewan did not get a chance to meet Lamoureux or Lau.