Will a Liberal win in New Brunswick prompt a sea change on climate?

After six years of leadership under the Progressive Conservatives, New Brunswick now has a Liberal premier who is an outlier in a region that has consistently pushed back against federal climate policy.

On Monday night, Liberal leader Susan Holt was elected with a majority at 31 seats, while incumbent premier Blaine Higgs lost his seat, leaving his party with 16 total. 

Holt won’t be as combative as Higgs, who constantly railed against the carbon tax and clean energy transition deadlines, says Mario Levesque, a professor at Mount Allison University.

He describes Holt as a right-of-centre “business Liberal” who is likely to be generally supportive of measures such as the carbon tax, but open to criticizing it to a certain extent, depending on the provincial mood. 

Holt is walking a fine line, Levesque said. She will want to get along with the federal Liberals, but must look ahead to a federal election and possible shift to a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre. Holt did not respond to a media request from Canada's National Observer by deadline.

“I think she'll be very friendly with the federal government, but from a distance. But she certainly will not be in the media bad-mouthing them one way or another,” Levesque said.  

“I think she's going to spend her time more on her own issues here.”

Holt has long criticized Higgs for his stance on climate. In 2023, when Higgs threatened to lift the moratorium on fracking in the province, Holt said he was looking in the “rearview mirror” when it comes to the province’s energy future.

“Here we have a government where the premier takes the world stage to pitch yesterday's energy solution. Aside from it being a poor business strategy, it's also pretty embarrassing,” she said in 2023, referencing Higgs’ recent trip to Europe, where he pitched fracked gas as a transition fuel.

She said rather than investing in shale gas, which “no one is looking to invest in,” the province should support the development of clean energy in partnerships with First Nations.

Meanwhile, the province’s Green party kept two seats, including party leader David Coon’s riding, but lost one. 

Throughout his term, Higgs spent “half his time” attacking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, notes Levesque. Over the past two years, Higgs and the other Atlantic Premiers have banded together to oppose the federal carbon tax and Higgs has said his government would refuse to shut down coal plants by the federally imposed deadline of 2030 if he felt they were still needed.

While Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey is Liberal, he too has gone head-to-head with Trudeau over the carbon tax. Most premiers across Canada are Conservative, and the federal Liberal party has faced opposition to its climate policies from coast to coast. 

Even if Holt narrows in on more local issues, she will be pressured by the federal government to help push forward the handful of outstanding climate policies it is trying to get over the finish line before the next election. Three key policies are an oil and gas emissions cap, new clean electricity regulations, and restrictions on methane — all of which are essential to the federal government’s 2030 targets to reduce planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

The future of the province’s Green party — and specifically Coon, who is very active in the legislature — is somewhat up in the air, said Levesque.

“That's going to affect climate change. Because if Coon stays, he's got to stay, not for a year or two, but for five years or six years,” he said. “Through the next election. So he's got to be there for the long term… he's got some decisions to make for himself and for the party as well.”

The province has a slew of climate-related issues which will continue to be important to voters during Holt’s term, notes Moe Qureshi, director of climate research and policy with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, a non-partisan organization. 

The province is a hot spot for energy: it is home to Canada’s largest oil refinery owned by Irving Oil, a company that has long been supported by Higgs, once an executive of the company. The province also harnesses nuclear power, which has been backed by both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals. Glyphosate is sprayed over Crown land to benefit the forestry industry, which both the Liberals and Greens vowed to stop during the 2020 election.

While Holt’s victory speech focused on education, health care and affordable housing, Qureshi notes that she has an opportunity to tie those concerns to climate change. Affordability was another key focus on the campaign trail, which is directly linked to issues such as high energy bills due to inefficient homes and energy prices, he notes. 

“What we're hoping for is that with this new government coming in… they're willing to talk about some of these issues and will find ways to actually address them,” he said, adding that ideally, “climate becomes a priority file” with intersectionality at the heart of efforts to address it.