Rising carbon emissions threaten climate goals in Toronto region

Carbon emissions have jumped two per cent in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in 2023 at a time when emissions should be falling fast, according to a new report from The Atmospheric Fund (TAF). 

Bryan Purcell, vice president of policy and programs at TAF, told Canada’s National Observer that a major factor was a 30 per cent increase in emissions from electricity generation, driven by the Ford government's increased reliance on natural gas plants. This shift alone added 885 kilotonnes of emissions, despite electricity consumption not having increased.

This year’s setback shows the region is “moving in the wrong direction,” Purcell said. Efforts to decarbonize buildings and transportation are being undermined, and the region is further off track from the 11 per cent annual reduction needed to meet its 2030 climate targets, he noted.

“While two per cent might not sound like a significant rise, to meet our climate targets, we need to see reductions of approximately 11 per cent per year,” Purcell said. “That’s a considerable gap between where we are and where we need to be going.”

The report notes that the GTHA, home to over 7.6 million people, accounts for nearly half of Ontario’s emissions.

Buildings remained the largest source of emissions in 2023, accounting for 45 per cent of the GTHA’s total. While building emissions decreased slightly (dropping 0.6 per cent), this reduction was primarily due to a milder winter. Purcell said heating is the largest energy use in buildings and homes, and the warmer winter reduced the need for fossil fuels for heating. However, even in a warming world, relying on weather patterns to drive emissions reductions is not sustainable; colder winters could lead to a rise in emissions again, he added.

“We need stronger municipal and provincial policies to require low-carbon construction and get buildings off natural gas as the primary heating source,” he said, stressing the need for utilities to invest in making the local grid ready for all-electric buildings, as well as supporting developers in installing heat pump systems.

Transportation, which accounts for 37 per cent of emissions, saw a 4.7 per cent increase in 2023, primarily due to greater personal vehicle use. With transportation emissions approaching pre-pandemic levels, the report stresses the urgent need for electrification, and greater investment in public transit and active transportation infrastructure.

There are barriers to climate action at all levels, Purcell said. For instance, electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more widely available and adoption is increasing  across the GTHA. According to Purcell, in 2023, the number of EVs on the road increased by 50 per cent compared to the previous year. However, many residents in multi-residential buildings face challenges in accessing charging infrastructure, limiting their ability to switch to EVs. To support a broader transition, Purcell said it is essential to rapidly expand charging infrastructure throughout the region, ensuring all drivers have the opportunity to make the switch.

According to Ontario’s Ministry of Energy and Electrification, the province is investing $91 million through the EV ChargeON program to support transportation electrification across the province.

“Ontario continues to have one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world with a plan to build new clean generation, including nuclear and hydro, to further reduce emissions from the sector," said Joseph Colella, spokesperson for the minister of energy and electrification.

Colella explained that Ontario's clean grid is enabling investments in electric vehicle charging, clean steel and transit. It is driving emissions reductions and helping the province meet its 2030 targets.

The report highlights actions that policymakers and corporations can take to reduce emissions, beginning with halting expansion of new fossil fuel infrastructure, which puts targets further out of reach. 

“Every politician and CEO, every decisionmaker must adopt carbon reduction as part of their core mandates,” said Julia Langer, TAF’s chief executive officer in a press release. “Let's not fall into the false trap that climate action undermines urgent needs like affordability, housing and mobility. The critical opportunity is to make progress on all these public priorities simultaneously.”

Positive trends include increased cycling and walking trips, record EV purchases and the widespread adoption of green development standards, which have helped stabilize building emissions, despite the region’s population growing by nearly a quarter million people.

Purcell points out there is growing enthusiasm for climate action among households and businesses, as reflected in the surge in electric vehicle sales, increased transit use, and the overwhelming response to programs like the Greener Homes initiative. 

Cities across the GTHA are advancing their climate efforts, with Hamilton recently approving new green building standards set to take effect in 2025. The city aims to make buildings 20 per cent more energy-efficient than provincial codes, focusing on efficient HVAC systems, green roofs, renewable energy, and EV-charging infrastructure to enhance sustainability and reduce emissions.

Ontario recently unveiled new heat pump initiatives under the Save on Energy program, but the program restricts eligibility to homes already using electric heating, excluding those reliant on gas through Enbridge. Critics argue this approach prioritizes reducing electricity demand over promoting sustainable alternatives and reflects the Ford government’s reliance on fossil fuels and reluctance to support a meaningful energy transition.

The province says it has invested billions in hydroelectric power, including refurbishing multiple generating stations to bolster Ontario’s supply of reliable, renewable energy and meet the province’s growing electricity needs. But the province is also doubling down on gas. Earlier this year, Ford's government introduced the Keeping Energy Costs Down Act — which overrode decisions by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) that would have limited Enbridge’s funding for gas expansions. The legislation allows the provincial government to reverse OEB decisions that block Enbridge's funding for gas expansions through increased customer rates, diminishing the regulator’s independence. 

In yesterday’s question period at Ontario's Queen’s Park, Ontario Greens Deputy Leader and MPP Aislinn Clancy also criticized the Ford government for “prioritizing fossil fuel companies over the public interest.” She urged the Ford government to end “sweetheart deals” with fossil fuel giants and take meaningful action to address the climate crisis. 

Clancy condemned the decision to overturn an OEB ruling, arguing that the government’s actions enable oil and gas companies to profit at the expense of local communities, depriving them of funds that could support essential infrastructure like schools and housing.