For a law-and-order premier, Ontario's Doug Ford is not interested in either

If you’re being charitable, you might argue there are inconsistencies in how Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government speaks and how it runs Ontario. The putatively “tough on crime” and law-and-order Tories are under multiple investigations, including an RCMP criminal probe into the Greenbelt land swap program. 

It’s now accepted wisdom that Ford will call the Ontario election early, likely sometime in the late-winter or early-spring of 2025. He may or may not, but that’s the talk. One speculative reason for sending voters to the polls ahead of the 2026 fixed date include Ford wishing to run “against” Trudeau – before his expected loss to the Conservatives in the fall of 2025. Another reason is Donald Trump, and the premier’s purported desire to manage the uncertainty that follows the mercurial Republican, though this one, floated by party insiders, is less credible. A third potential reason is that Ford is anxious to get ahead of whatever might come from the Greenbelt – and other – investigations.

Given these reasons for a potential early election call, a less charitable, and more accurate, assessment of the Ford government would be that it is cynical and hypocritical – keen to get out ahead of any potential bad news that may come from the investigations it faces, particularly the Greenbelt case, and keen to exploit federal Liberal unpopularity.

The supposed “law and order” party is duplicitous, but that won’t stop them from moralizing, nor will it stop them from leveraging culture war wedge issues to divide the electorate and wrongfoot the split Liberal-NDP-Green opposition. It’s a classic and effective move.

Earlier this week, the PCs tabled a bill that would close nearly half of the supervised drug consumption sites in Ontario. The government likes to pretend the move is about protecting schools and daycares, but in truth, it’s culture war against people who use drugs. It includes a commitment to closing the sites wherever they may be, and ensuring no new ones open. Experts are already warning the closures will lead to deaths. They are correct.

The supervised consumption site closures are a plank in Ford’s strategy to divide the electorate along the classic lines of so-called permissive liberalism and law and order conservatism, a division designed to court suburban and rural voters and to leave urban populations split between the province’s Liberals, New Democrats, and Greens. Ford’s attacks on bike lanes, particularly in Toronto, is another part of that strategy, a multi-million dollar assault on cycling safety and climate-friendly transportation policy. It seems there isn’t a wedge issue the PCs can resist.

A culture war strategy such as that deployed by Ford and company relies on a plurality of voters not paying too much attention to the details while getting caught up in the vibes generated by whatever strategic distraction the government is offering that day. Sometimes, it’s alcohol liberalisation, other times it’s a boondoggle waiting to happen, like building a 55 kilometre, multi-billion dollar tunnel under the 401, the busiest highway in North America. 

The strategy also includes a heaping spoonful of economic populism. Ford opposes the federal carbon tax, using it – and the federal Liberal government – as a punching bag. He routinely sounds off against the Bank of Canada, arguing it must lower interest rates to provide relief to consumers. Combined with attacks on drug users and cyclists and wrapped in an avuncular, aww shucks smirk or exasperated head shake, it’s powerful stuff.

It’s frustrating to watch Ford’s approach work, but it does. If you can rile up roughly 40 per cent of voters in a culture war, distract them with baubles, and count on a divided opposition, you can sneak in election victories and buck the global anti-incumbent backlash. Ford may even manage to do so despite being wildly unpopular himself. His party remains at around that 40 percent support mark, set for another majority in the legislature.

The way things stand, Ford is set to win again, rewarded for his duplicity and cynicism. That’s disappointing, but not surprising. Electoral politics isn’t an old western flick. The white hat doesn’t always win. But in the long run, governments do tend to get what they deserve – which is, quite often, defeat. And if Ford is indeed keen to secure another majority before the results of the Greenbelt, and other, investigations come to light, he may be merely delaying the inevitable.