Ontario makes plans to expand its electricity grid as demand soars

The government of Ontario is increasing energy procurement targets by 50 per cent — the province’s largest ever — saying the push is critical to keep up with the soaring demand for electricity.

The government said in a press release that Ontario’s Independent Electricity Systems Operator expects electricity demand to increase 75 per cent by 2050, the equivalent of adding four and a half Torontos to the grid.

However, experts think the forecasted 75 per cent increase in demand is an underestimate.

“Lots of modellers expect to see a doubling of electricity demand or a tripling even in some cases by 2050,” Scott MacDougall, director of the electricity program at the Pembina Institute.

Like the original expansion plan, which was announced in August, the government has said the procurement will be “technology agonistic,” meaning that it will be open to all forms of electricity generation including non-renewable methods like gas-fired plants.

MacDougall said it is “not bad” necessarily to request technology-agnostic proposals. In general, electrification is a good thing for sustainability in Ontario and the expansion plan is good from that perspective, he added. Ontario needs to move quickly to expand its electricity supply because 10 nuclear power plants are being refurbished and will be off-grid during maintenance. Gas-fired plants, which are a source of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, may be needed in the short term to shore up sources of renewable energy, MacDougall said. 

When nuclear plants come back on the grid, there will be less demand for high-emissions generating sources like gas plants.

“I sure hope they can stick to their guns on that,” he said.

In the long run, renewable resources like wind and solar are becoming more economically competitive and popular in Canada, MacDougall said, adding that older, more polluting technologies like gas-fired plants will have tough competition from more sustainable resources. 

“Globally, investment in wind and solar is far greater than investment in gas-fired power,” he said. “I don’t think they’d be investing so heavily in wind and solar if they were less economically competitive.”

The government has also asked the Independent Electricity Systems Operator to suggest additional procurement options to support more renewable resources like long-term energy storage, hydropower and solar installations.