Trudeau stakes out high ground on climate with cabinet shuffle

While Canadians wait to see if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will put himself out to pasture, Friday’s cabinet shuffle offers clues about how climate ambition could factor into the ongoing political chaos that threatens his tenure like never before. 

Following a tumultuous week that began with Chrystia Freeland’s surprise resignation from cabinet and ended with NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announcing he intends to trigger an election in the new year, Friday’s shuffle is widely seen as an attempt by Trudeau to plug the holes before the Liberal ship capsizes. 

Eight MPs were added to cabinet and four ministers were reassigned. But for people who care about climate policy, what didn’t change is just as instructive regarding Trudeau’s strategy. By keeping Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault, and Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson at their posts, some say that’s a sign Trudeau wants to push remaining climate policies over the finish line before facing voters. 

Keith Stewart, senior strategist with Greenpeace Canada and University of Toronto instructor, told Canada’s National Observer it’s a good sign Guilbeault and Wilkinson kept their portfolios because if new ministers were brought in it would be unlikely the cap on oil and gas pollution would be finalized before an election.

“That's really important because one option [for Trudeau] is to basically stop where we are right now and say to voters ‘If you want your oil and gas emissions cap and other measures than you've got to reelect Liberals,’” he said. “That would be breaking the promises from the last election platform where they said they were going to do these things, and I think more broken promises are not going to make people more inclined to vote Liberal.

“If they have got the clean electricity regulations and oil and gas emissions cap — even though they're weaker than what environmentalists certainly wanted done — then they can go into the election saying we kept our promises on climate, and reelect us to do more.”

Even though polling suggests affordability issues are the top priority for Canadians (and a laser focus for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s attacks), a majority are still concerned about climate change, setting up a battle between Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois to claim the high ground on that file. 

Regional disparity in climate concern

Over the past year, Liberals have tried to claim credible climate action as their turf. At first, that looked like Guilbeault pivoting to an attack dog role against Poilievre, and more recently accusing the NDP of caving on the carbon price. 

An Abacus Data poll this week found the Conservatives have opened a 25-point lead over the Liberals — their largest yet — creating a significant uphill battle for the Liberal Party. In every region, other than Quebec, Conservatives are well ahead. In Quebec, the Bloc is currently in the top spot with nearly 40 per cent of the vote. 

Any feasible path to victory for the Liberals will require rebuilding support in Quebec, and pulling voters from the Bloc. Leger polling has found people in Quebec are more concerned about climate change than anywhere else in the country, and voters there want to see more ambitious action from the federal government. 

At the same time, more ambitious climate action from the Trudeau government leads to more conflict with provinces like Alberta, and barbs from Poilievre. 

Stewart said Albertans' upset about federal climate policies is unlikely to affect the Liberals’ electoral outcomes there, given how little support they have. The political risk is that if Liberals try to appease voters less concerned about climate change in a bid to get reelected, they could lose support in Quebec, Ontario and parts of British Columbia that are winnable.

Guilbeault secure in minister role

Of course, much depends on whether Trudeau decides to stay on or resign. 

Guilbeault said he doesn’t know what the prime minister will do, and that it’s not his place to speculate. But he also emphasized the two have a good working relationship.

“Everything I did as environment minister I did because the Prime Minister had my back,” he said. “It would've been so easy for him to tell me to back off on [carbon] pricing and just abandon it, like so many people were asking us to do.”

The oil and gas pollution cap upsets the fossil fuel industry, electric vehicle mandates had the auto sector unhappy, and clean fuel standards saw pushback from refineries, he said, acknowledging the political capital that’s been spent to advance decarbonization efforts.

Throughout 2024, Trudeau’s popularity has fallen, according to a poll published Friday by the Angus Reid Institute. Only 28 per cent of Canadians approve of his performance, tying the lowest approval ratings he’s had in his near decade in power. 

Trudeau’s “fellow major federal party leaders are faring better, but not by much. Both CPC leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are viewed unfavourably by more than half of Canadians,” the poll found. 

A whopping 71 per cent of Canadians want the next federal government to do more to address climate change and protect nature, according to a Leger poll published Dec. 11. However, there is a massive partisan divide. 

Only half of Conservative voters want to see more climate action, while over a third want to see the federal government do less. 

According to the poll, 96 per cent of Bloc voters want the federal government to do more. Liberals and the NDP were tied with 92 per cent of their voters wanting to see the federal government do more.