Does Donald Trump mean what he says about tariffs and annexation?

Incoming U.S. president Donald Trump has been courting controversy in Canada since his election victory, with threats to impose whopping tariffs on Canadian goods and musings about the country becoming "the 51st state."

While Trump's comments have drawn anger and fear among Canadians, reaction from Americans who live, study or work in Canada has been mixed – and largely influenced by how they voted in the presidential election. 

Jacob Wesoky, the executive vice chair of Democrats Abroad Canada who is studying political science at McGill University in Montreal, said he is "extremely" disappointed by the president-elect's approach to his country's "closest" ally.

“As an American living in Canada, it is really sad to watch," said Wesoky, who voted for Trump's rival Kamala Harris.

But Canadian American Georganne Burke, a staunch Trump supporter, said that while the incoming president may be "a bit of a troll," she doesn't see his actions as harmful to Canada. 

"He's not asking for anything unreasonable," she said.

Trump's first shot at Canada came in November, when he said he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports as soon as he returns to the White House on Jan. 20 –unless the two countries improve security along their borders with the U.S. 

After outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump in Florida to discuss the tariff threat, the president-elect started pitching the idea of Canada becoming the next U.S. state, trolling Trudeau by calling him "governor" of the "great state of Canada" in social media posts. 

The prime minister's announcement Monday that he would step down after the Liberal party elects a new leader only seemed to further embolden Trump, who claimed on his Truth Social platform that "many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st state."  

What started out as an apparent joke took another turn Tuesday when Trump threatened to use "economic force" to make Canada the next U.S. state and reiterated his tariff promise at a news conference in Florida. Trudeau responded by saying there "isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell" that Canada would become part of the United States.

Canada is home to more than a million Americans, including visitors on long-term visas and dual citizens, according to estimates from the Association of Americans Resident Overseas. Among them are many Republicans who voted for Trump, and who said in the days before Trump's latest declaration that Canadians shouldn't worry about his return to the White House.

Burke said Trump "isn't anti-Canada" but he has good reasons to be "very worried" about the threat of what she called "terrorism" along the border and Canada's failure to meet NATO's military spending benchmark. 

"He's saying: you know what, time's up, the U.S. is not going be the ATM anymore for anybody, not Canada, not anybody else," the Ontario resident said.

"He's a bit of a troll, whether people like it or not, people may say, oh, that's not presidential or whatever, but that's just the way he is."

The federal government announced last month that it would invest $1.3 billion to strengthen border security. Burke said the results of that pledge might encourage Trump to delay the tariffs and wait to negotiate details with the next Canadian government after Trudeau's departure.

Renna Bassal, a longtime Trump supporter and an American who moved to Canada about five decades ago, said last week that Trump's remarks about annexing Canada had been a joke aimed at disrespecting and taunting Trudeau – not Canada as a nation. 

The Montreal resident said she isn't sure Trump will make good on his tariff threats, and believes the heavy-handed approach he has adopted is a “bargaining chip” ahead of expected trade negotiations between the two countries. 

She said she remains optimistic about U.S.-Canada relations.

“Sometimes, you know, he says things that perhaps he shouldn't say, and I'm hoping that this will be one of those instances where he's not going to follow through on (tariffs),” she said. "It would be extremely unfortunate, and I certainly hope that this doesn't happen."

Wesoky, the political science student involved with Democrats Abroad Canada, said Trump's tariffs would not only increase the cost of living in the United States, but also harm American consumers and businesses as much as they would hurt the Canadian economy.

"So this rhetoric that really goes against this relationship that is built on trust and respect ... I think is not only dangerous, but it'll be detrimental to the U.S economy," he said.

Wesoky said he isn't sure that Trump's concerns about Canadian border security are legitimate but even if they were, the issue should be handled through negotiations and collaboration.

Before Trump escalated his annexation rhetoric on Tuesday, Ottawa had largely taken a measured approach to the president-elect's bluster.

And that might be the best strategy, said Mark R. Brawley, an American Canadian professor of international relations at McGill University. 

Instead, Brawley suggested Ottawa could target specific U.S. congressional districts with reciprocal tariffs to trigger opposition to Trump's plans from senators and representatives in those areas.

Brawley, who became a Canadian citizen last year after living in the country for almost 35 years, said Trump sees the people he is negotiating with as opponents, not partners, and believes making outrageous remarks about them gives him an advantage.

“He thinks he's throwing them off balance and that gives him some kind of an edge," he said.

Trump has a habit of exaggerating problems so that he can take credit once they are resolved, Brawley said, and his stance on security at the U.S.-Canada border could be one example of that. 

“The whole idea that Canada would be a single state in the U.S. or that the U.S. wants Canada to be a state is kind of preposterous," he said. "It's just his style of doing things, so I wouldn't take it too seriously."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 8. 2025.