National project afoot to future-proof local workforces during climate transition

An ambitious project is aiming to future-proof the Canadian communities and workforces most vulnerable to disruption as the world transitions to a net-zero economy. 

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions here and abroad in the coming decades will drive changes in technology, markets and trade. Workers and communities across the country will be impacted, particularly in smaller rural, remote areas that are less economically diverse, said Rachel Samson, vice president of research at the Institute for Research on Public Policy. 

In response, the Community Transformations Project has pinpointed populations and workers most susceptible to the changes, so all levels of government can work with residents to devise appropriate strategies to anticipate, adapt and thrive, Samson said. 

The multi-year initiative features resources like an interactive map and ongoing series of community profiles, policy briefs and expert-led research that will be available on the project’s website – which will show people how susceptible their community is. 

From the top 68 communities on a scale ranging from moderately to most susceptible, Quebec has the most with 16 communities, followed by Alberta with 14, and Ontario with eight, according to the project. 

The people, politicians, companies, groups and businesses interviewed for the project all share the desire for stable jobs and incomes to support their families, Samson stressed. 

“That's not a lot to ask for, right?" Samson observed.

“So, how do we build the transition to support that because it’s not really the approach that's been taken to date.” 

The vast majority, or 90 per cent, of Canada’s communities will be fairly resilient to the net-zero transition, but the remaining communities will need targeted support based on their individual mix of impacts and needs, she said. 

Alberta and Saskatchewan have the highest number of vulnerable communities due to coal, oil and gas operations, while Quebec has a number of susceptible communities due to food manufacturing and truck transportation, Samson said. 

However, looking at the total percentage of the identified communities’ workforce vulnerability to anticipated change, PEI led the way at 30 per cent, followed by New Brunswick at 25 per cent and Alberta at 21 per cent. 

Three factors were used to gauge a community’s vulnerability: intensity, facility and market susceptibilities, Samson said. 

Respectively, those factors measured the proportion of employment in emissions-heavy industry; the emissions from big facilities relative to a community’s size; and the amount of employment in trade-heavy sectors expected to face big market transformations. 

“We score each of the communities on those metrics, and we rank them from top to bottom,” Samson said. 

For example, a large emitter, like a coal-fired power plant, would impact a town’s facility susceptibility rating. And heavy employment in emissions-intensive sectors in meat or oil and gas production might lead to a high intensity ranking. Towns facing imminent production transitions, like shifts to EV automotive manufacturing in parts of Ontario, might rate high on market susceptibility, Samson said.

The top 10 impacted communities based on all three metrics based on 2021 census data, include Channel-Port aux Basques and Harbour Breton in Newfoundland, St. Stephen and Grand Manan in New Brunswick, Wood Buffalo and its improvement district in Alberta, Sorel-Tracy and Sainte-Anne-de-Sorel in Quebec, and Trail and Rossland in B.C.

The project is creating 10 community profiles featuring different industries and vulnerabilities as case studies that include potential lessons and possible courses of action. 

Estevan, Saskatchewan, and Ingersoll, Ontario, are the first two communities being profiled. 

Estevan residents and businesses are apprehensive about the impacts the phase-out of coal power and volatility of future oil and gas markets might have on the workforce, Samson said. 

While Ingersoll was one of the first communities to make the shift from traditional auto manufacturing to electric vehicle production, Samson added, noting the transition was not an easy one and involved rolling layoffs, retraining the workforce and the closure of some parts suppliers. 

“It really led to this community-wide disruption,” Samson said. 

“So, what local leaders want there now is better access to social services, more government focus on ensuring that EV demand is strong, improved skills training and education, and greater flexibility in the employment insurance system.” 

The project has developed a set of initial local government recommendations focused around local community development, she said. 

Future recommendations will involve action at the provincial and federal level that can be taken to provide targeted support around employment insurance or for major employers in a community, Samson said. 

Overall, what’s needed is a shift away from a scattershot, piecemeal approach by various levels of government, she added. 

Federal, provincial and territorial governments should offer enhanced tax credits and subsidies to drive investment toward the communities that need it most, she said, noting comprehensive and urgent support was directed to “energy communities” in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, or to transition coal-based towns under Australia’s Net Zero Economy Authority.

Local economic development planning could take place through federally funded Community Futures Organizations if sufficient resources were provided, she added. 

Research shows programs and funding for economic diversification is in decline and few of the susceptible communities identified by the project have received major economic investment, Samson said. 

“Somewhere like Estevan is looking for a lot more support,” she said.  

“It’s nice that the government's helping them to beautify their Main Street, but that may not help them in the long-term in really transforming their economy.” 

Rochelle Baker / Canada’s National Observer