Trump threat hands Ford his perfect campaign gift

You don’t have to love Doug Ford. And you certainly don’t have to vote for him. But you do have to admire the calculated brilliance of his election campaign kickoff this week.

For those who missed out, Ford chose the border at Windsor, with the Ambassador Bridge and Canadian and Ontario flags as a patriotic backdrop, to pitch himself as the province's defender-in-chief. Ford chose a statesmanlike look: bare-headed and dressed formally in a suit, despite his proclivity for hardhats and new “Canada is not for sale” caps.

Ford’s enemy du jour is, of course, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has unnerved everyone with talk of pressuring Canada to become the 51st state and threats of 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods and services on Feb. 1. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates the country’s GDP would drop by 2.6 per cent, while prices  jump immediately and stay high if Trump sticks to his plan. 

Tariffs would be a hard slap across the face for our entire country. But it would be a gut punch for Ontario, Canada’s largest manufacturing centre. Most (85 per cent) of Ontario’s exports are sold into the U.S. market, including the majority of trucks, cars and SUVs produced by its crucial vehicle manufacturing sector.

Economic mayhem does not typically make for a winning election campaign. The exception: when blame for the trouble can logically be pinned on an outside enemy, particularly a bully boy like Trump. And for Ford, the fight with the U.S. has another huge upside —  a potential “wag the dog” distraction from his last term’s mountain of missteps.

Because those, frankly, have been huge. Let’s start with the pesky RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt scandal that led to the resignation of Ryan Amato, former chief of staff to the Municipal Affairs and Housing minister. Amato was identified as a key player by former auditor general Bonnie Lysyk’s report on the Greenbelt landswap deal. Lysyk found the Ford government’s decision to carve out some of the protected Greenbelt lands for housing development was biased, and location decisions were made with input from some of the very developers that stood to benefit. There was an unmistakable whiff of corruption around the entire deal, but until the police investigation is complete, we won’t know how close to Ford the tentacles of this sleazy deal will reach.

Oh, and while we’re talking about the longstanding cozy relationship between Ford and land developers, let’s not forget the 2023 pre-wedding fundraiser Ford hosted for his daughter. It was attended by a number of developers who just happen to give generously to the Progressive Conservatives — and have development plans that got favourable treatment from the premier. Ford claims the developers invited to the so-called “stag-and-doe” party are family friends. He insists he cleared the invites with the province’s integrity commissioner, but opposition parties aren’t buying it.

It’s not like Ford’s shoulder-rubbing with developers and the government’s attempted land grabs have fulfilled his mandate; Ontario’s efforts to solve its housing crisis haven’t gotten very far. A report from the province’s Financial Accountability Office found single-family home housing starts were the lowest in almost 70 years. Quarterly housing starts would almost have to double to meet the government’s 2022 election commitment to build 1.5 million new units by 2031, the report went on to say.

There are other aspects of Ford’s record worth critiquing, as well. His government has been a bad friend to the climate. Perhaps, the most shocking example is the extraordinary measures the government took to protect the interests of Enbridge, Ontario’s gas provider. Ford is bigger on building highways (and even, briefly, a harebrained tunnel under Toronto) to aid sprawl, than he is on transit. He also refuses to make electric vehicle charging outlets mandatory in new buildings. 

Sadly, concerns about climate policy have fallen behind housing, affordability and health care, of late. And on those key issues, Ford’s track record has not been stellar. Housing aside, there are 2.5 million Ontarians who don’t have a family doctor, a failing that Ford’s Liberal opponent, Bonnie Crombie was quick to point out. 

Ford almost certainly wanted an early election to beat the conclusion of the RCMP investigation. Even if he is personally exonerated, others who worked with him probably won’t be as lucky, and the whole messy affair will rocket to the top of another news cycle. So, I can only imagine the fist pump when the Trump tariff threats were uttered. Ford saw his opportunity and seized it.

Ford’s tariff campaign began in November at a time when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was dithering over whether or not to resign and the governing federal Liberals were at the height of disarray. Since then, he has been speaking on behalf of the premiers, at times sounding almost like a federal Liberal. He went hard on Alberta Premier Danielle Smith for her sycophantic efforts to cozy up to Trump and insistence that Canada not play the oil and gas card if retaliation against U.S. tariffs becomes necessary. And at his campaign kickoff Wednesday, Ford kept the drumbeat going, pitching himself as the best captain to steer the economy through the troubled waters ahead.

So far, Ford’s pitch seems to be working. A recent poll shows Ford’s Progressive Conservatives well ahead with 47 per cent support among eligible voters, the Liberals trailing with 24 per cent, and the NDP with 19 per cent. 

Unless the U.S. backs off or some other Ontario scandal surfaces between now and election day on Feb. 27, Doug Ford looks set to cruise to a third term leading another majority government. Thank-yous from those happy with the results can be sent straight to Trump.