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Zero Carbon

With Chris Hatch
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November 10th 2023
Feature story

A heat pump in every home

You probably know the rap already — heat pumps are the key to sustainable heating, both in buildings and for a lot of industries. And you probably know they’re as close to magic as things get in the climate world — they aren’t just “heat” pumps but air conditioners as well. And they’re outlandishly, even perplexingly, efficient. More than 100 per cent efficient. We get more energy out than we put in, with models running at 300 per cent, 400 per cent and even higher efficiencies.

If there’s a silver lining to the recent fracas over the carbon tax and heating oil, it’s that a lot of people beyond our orbit are now hearing about heat pumps. Ever more neurons firing and wiring, strengthening the synaptic connections between fossil fuels, climate change and electrification.

And since you’re all such a practical bunch, it’s probably a good moment to look at what’s working out there in the wider world of heat pumps. Who’s doing a good job getting them installed? And what are those countries doing?

If you scan the globe, the runaway leader in pumps-per-homes is Norway. And no, I’m not mixing up the stats for electric cars. You’ve probably heard that almost all new cars in Norway are now EVs, but the Norwegians are rocking heat pumps, too. Over 60 per cent of households already have heat pumps. Almost all of them of the air-source variety.

It’s a very peculiar country when it comes to climate and energy — pumping two million barrels per day with plans to increase extraction for export while aggressively rolling out fossil alternatives like EVs and heat pumps domestically.

Another peculiar point is that Norway is undeniably cold in winter. It’s bisected by the Arctic Circle and not the kind of place people get risky about home heating.

In fact, the runners-up on heat pumps are really cold as well: Sweden and Finland (where 43 per cent and 41 per cent of households already have heat pumps).

So, what did these countries do?

Stop and electrify

Since the energy crisis in the 1970s, the Nordic governments resisted any new dependence on fossil fuels for heating. All of them had been very dependent on heating oil in particular.

The countries embraced electrification, some prioritized district heating and they focused on the basics of building efficiency (insulation, good windows and the rest). Homes in Nordic countries leak the least heat on the continent. Norway very notably resisted getting high on its own supply of natural gas, favouring electricity from hydropower instead.

That broad effort has been underway for quite awhile, and certainly set the stage, but the mass adoption of heat pumps across Norway and other leading countries is much more recent. Heat pumps have accelerated from zero to 60 in the last few years thanks to a package of regulations, carbon pricing and smart programs coupled with incentives.

Ban the burn

In 2018, Norway introduced a ban on the use of heating oil for residential, public and commercial buildings, which came into effect in 2020. This wasn’t just a ban on installing new systems — it applied to new and existing buildings. “Those using fossil oil for heating must find other options by 2020,” Environment Minister Vidar Helgesen notified everyone back in 2017.

The regulations now extend across the Nordic countries for all buildings and all fossil fuels. And they are being copied with various amendments across Europe. Some apply to all buildings, some target new ones, some kick in when furnaces are replaced.

The regulations aren’t always written as bans on fossil fuel burning. They can also be framed to cut greenhouse gas emissions, eliminate poisonous fumes, or require clean energy. New regulations are being written all the time, but as things stand, the big EU countries have programs that either explicitly phase out fossil fuels in heating or do so implicitly, as in Germany where the regulation requires any heating system to be at least 65 per cent sourced from renewable energy.

Tax carbon

“Carbon taxation has played a key role in making heat pumps economically competitive in all three (Nordic) countries,” according to the Regulatory Assistance Project.

They have had steadily rising carbon prices since the early 1990s. Sweden’s is currently $158 per tonne, compared to $65 in Canada (heating oil not included). Norway’s currently sits at $100 and is scheduled to rise to $255 in 2030 when Canada’s is slated for $170.

Incentives and programs

Subsidies and installation programs have been in place since the early 2000s in all the leading countries. Each country has different schemes and the policies get pretty complex since they are customized to support not just air-source heat pumps but also air-to-water systems, geothermal and water-based ones, as well as district heating systems and energy efficiency more broadly.

The net result is that these countries are still accelerating heat pump installation even though the markets are pretty mature at this point. Last year, heat pump installation increased by 50 per cent in Finland and rose 25 per cent even in Norway where the momentum is already so high. When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and caused an energy crisis, European countries had an obvious template and heat pump sales jumped to three million in 2022. In several countries, installations doubled in a single year.

As for the impact on carbon pollution? “Cumulatively, the heat pumps sold over the past 30 years contributed to a -72 per cent drop in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from heating in Finland, -83 per cent in Norway and -95 per cent in Sweden,” writes Jan Rosenow, one of Europe’s heat pump gurus.

Rosenow is quick to emphasize that those results also include “district heating, (which) has become less carbon intensive and buildings have been built and retrofitted to a higher fabric efficiency standard over time.”

By contrast, carbon pollution from buildings is still very much on the rise in Canada. The only sector growing faster is oil and gas.

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at the steps some cities in Quebec are taking to stop hooking up new buildings to fossil fuels. Andrea wrote in from the West Coast to make sure we don’t ignore B.C.

“Are you aware that several municipalities in the Capital Regional District (Victoria) have adopted B.C.'s new Zero Carbon Step Code?” Andrea asks. “This will ban fossil gas in new builds… It's a provincial code that municipalities can adopt, much like the Energy Step Code.”

Advocates like Andrea have already convinced councillors in a number of municipalities to require zero carbon for new builds by the end of 2024. Those include B.C.’s capital, Victoria, as well as nearby Saanich, Central Saanich, View Royal, Esquimalt and Colwood.

Beyond the capital region, Andrea lists off “Nanaimo, North Cowichan, the District of North Vancouver, Richmond, Whistler, Rossland and Nelson have adopted the code or something similar to it.”

Each one a testament to long hours of local organizing and leadership from elected officials and local government staff. Kudos to you all.

B.C.’s premier has also jumped on the heat pump parade, heading off to the premiers’ meeting in Halifax, suitably attired.

“We spent over a billion dollars fighting forest fires this year,” Premier David Eby said. “We will spend well in excess of a billion dollars addressing atmospheric rivers, floods in the Fraser Valley and it’s just devastating B.C.… Heat pumps are efficient even in extreme cold, cost-effective and a clean way to heat your home. That’s why I’m advocating for the federal government to bring their heat pump program to B.C.”

Just for a moment, let’s be generous and set aside some begged questions about fossil gas, fracking and old-growth logging. Because that was the kind of pitch we want to hear more often from the premiers — strengthening those sapien synapses and contrasting the costs of climate change to affordability and clean energy.

The Canadian Climate Institute has shown that heat pumps are already “the lowest cost option for heating and cooling most homes in Canada.” There’s even an online calculator to help you run your own numbers.

But the upfront costs are daunting for many people, even with the various rebates available and the interest-free loan on offer from the feds. And upfront costs are insurmountable for low-income Canadians. This spring, the Trudeau government brought in an “Oil to Heat Pump Affordability Program” to provide upfront support and that’s what it jacked up during the carbon tax-heating oil fiasco.

If it hadn’t been overshadowed by the controversy over the carbon tax, it’s the kind of chicken-in-every-pot that climate action sorely lacks. Instead of invisible “emissions” and wonky policies, the heat pump is something tangible. And some advocates are urging the feds to “flip the script” by boosting heat pump programs, coupling them with other energy savings like insulation and offering them to all low-income Canadians, no matter what fuel source they’re stuck on right now.

“One way to improve affordability and reduce emissions at the same time is to help people improve their energy efficiency,” says Brendan Haley from the Efficiency Canada think tank.

The federal government could “actually strengthen its climate policy and climate agenda instead of weakening it (with) a national energy efficiency program for low-income Canadians.”

The Affordability Action Council made a similar proposal for a “Retrofit Reset” prioritizing low-income households: “Older, drafty homes without air conditioning” where people are vulnerable to high energy costs and climate risks. Free, turnkey retrofits would aim to make “about 100,000 homes per year more affordable, energy efficient and climate resilient.”

None of this would be cheap. The Liberal’s newly-jacked heat pump affordability program is now pegged at $750 million over four years, just for Atlantic Canada. The Retrofit Reset would be more like $2 billion. That’s real money — and here’s another cortical connection — almost as much as the feds put on the table for carbon capture in the oilpatch.

The roundup

The numbers are coming in for October and they’re not good. Not quite as “gobsmackingly bananas” as September but this year’s radical temperatures are continuing. September was about 1.8 C above pre-industrial temperatures, October was about 1.7 C.

Here’s how October 2023 compares to the last 80 Octobers:

“The amount that we’re smashing records by is shocking,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

It’s “virtually guaranteed” to be the hottest year on record, and for at least 125,000 years. Here’s an update on the radical departure of 2023 from previous years:

“It's so much more expensive to keep burning these fossil fuels than it would be to stop doing it. That’s basically what it shows,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

“And of course, you don’t see that when you just look at the records being broken and not at the people and systems that are suffering, but that — that is what matters.”

Petrostates plan expansion

Expansion plans by the world’s big fossil fuel producing countries would blow the remaining carbon budget twice over, according to the latest Production Gap Report by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, E3G, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and the UN Environment Program. Expansion plans for the Canadian oil industry rank fourth in the world.

“While Canada positions itself as a vanguard of climate leadership, the continued expansion of fossil fuel production exposes a critical shortcoming: the Paris Agreement’s inability to hold nations accountable,” Climate Action Network International’s head of global political strategy Harjeet Singh told Canada’s National Observer. “This glaring oversight necessitates the crafting of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to bridge the climate policy void.”

Small modular failure

The front-runner project for “small modular nuclear reactors” (SMRs) has been cancelled. NuScale Power has the only design certified by the U.S. government and the company’s project in Utah was cancelled after a decade of work because ballooning costs scared off any potential customers. “Once you’re on a dead horse, you dismount quickly. That’s where we are here,” said NuScale’s CEO.

‘False statements’ about the freeze

Premier Danielle Smith claims Alberta put a freeze on renewable energy because of concern from provincial regulators. “As it turns out, the government was already preparing speaking notes on its decision before provincial regulators weighed in,” reports The Narwhal, based on documents obtained through a freedom-of-information request.

Offshore oil exploration fizzles off Canada’s eastern coast

The plans are big but the uptake is not: “Last week, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board announced there were no new bids to explore the region in 2023,” reports Natasha Bulouwski.

“This is not the outcome we wanted from this call for bids, and of course, we are disappointed with the results,” said the provincial spokesperson.

Indigenous-led clean energy

“From Mi’gmaq communities in the Gaspé Peninsula harnessing the power of wind to a health centre powered by solar in Lubicon Lake First Nation in Alberta, the energy transition is underway and is being led by Indigenous communities,” reports Cloe Logan.

A new Indigenous Just Transition Guide “provides inspiring case studies where Indigenous communities are taking a lead on real climate solutions while also showing a path forward for our communities,” said Jayce Chiblow of Garden River First Nation, who is the education and training manager at Indigenous Climate Action.

Manitoba

Manitoba’s new premier, Wab Kinew, has already indicated that Manitoba will meet federal clean electricity standards and is embarking on projects with the feds. Notably, a $476.5-million hydro upgrade and transmission expansion.

“Our government is very happy to partner with the Government of Canada on this investment, because for the last seven years in Manitoba, our skilled trades, our workers have been going out West to build pipelines,” Kinew told CTV News Winnipeg.

“But with this investment, we’re going to bring them home to build Manitoba Hydro projects, to build transmission projects, to build generating projects, to power our low-carbon economy with good-paying, blue-collar jobs.”

Heat pumps and the far-right

Since we’ve been talking about heat pumps, I’ll leave you with a cautionary tale. It’s all too obvious how climate obstructionists have weaponized carbon taxes. But they’re more than capable of weaponizing any action on climate. Karl Mathiesen wrote a dispatch from Germany where the far-right turned heat pumps into electoral rocket fuel.

Writing for Politico ahead of October’s elections, Mathiesen asks, “When they write the book on the downfall of liberal democracy, will it begin with the heat pumps?”

“Immediately outside the main train station in the German city of Wiesbaden, an election poster has been tied high up on a lamppost, out of reach of those who would tear it down in the belief that it’s a harbinger of fascism once again spreading across the country. The subject? Not scary depictions of migrants. Nor the overreach of the European Union. But home heating systems.

“The heat pump, a banal piece of green home technology, was at the centre of Germany’s major political controversy of the summer — one that has helped propel the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to the brink of a series of electoral breakthroughs, prompting many in a country scarred by the legacy of Nazism to fret about the future of democracy.”