Where do the Liberals go from here?
It’s a question many are asking right now, particularly in the wake of a decision by the federal government last month to exempt home heating oil from the carbon price, undermining its climate efforts while giving credence to its opponents’ favourite talking point in one fell swoop.
It probably goes without saying this wasn’t the story the Liberals were trying to tell. It was, rather, the story that followed. It was the story in almost every headline, the story the Opposition party has been going on about since the dawn of carbon pricing (a policy that’s been fought over in five federal elections to date), and the story on the lips of certain premiers who similarly took the opportunity to make threats and demands.
The mistake was, in a literal sense, a simple one, which is to say that effective communications must be simple. And for the Liberals on Oct. 26, the story they didn’t want being told was simple, while the story they were trying to tell was frankly confusing.
By making heating oil temporarily exempt from carbon pricing, the federal government left Canadians with the impression that carbon pricing was responsible for soaring heating oil prices. After all, taxes add a visible cost and oil heating has become a lot more expensive in recent years. So simple the argument is that Conservative Leader Piere Poilievre has distilled it to three words that fit neatly on his rally podiums: axe the tax.
It’s an easy position to understand, which too often matters more than whether it’s true. A quick aside: the real culprit here is fossil fuel inflation. Since 2020, the carbon price on heating oil has increased by 12 cents per litre, while the average price for heating oil shot up 75 cents. That’s the story the Liberals should have been telling on Oct. 26: how clean energy makes life more affordable by shielding Canadians from the geopolitical volatility of fossil fuels.
Indeed, climate change and the affordability crisis are two political mountains that, far from being at odds, must be climbed together.
A wealth of research has shown the clean energy transition will result in lower energy bills for Canadians, and heat pumps are a perfect money-saving example of how that comes to be.
It’s worth extolling for a moment the myriad benefits of the humble heat pump, a piece of equipment that saves you money, helps combat climate change and protects you from the effects of climate change by cooling your home (heat pumps double as energy-efficient air conditioners).
In a place like B.C., another province the federal government is bleeding votes in, heat pumps are often installed first and foremost for their cooling benefits. Homes in “mild” B.C. have historically been built without cooling (in 2021, only 36 per cent of households in the province had any kind of air conditioner, including heat pumps, compared to 64 per cent nationally). The same year that number was recorded, B.C.’s unprecedented heat dome killed over 600 people.
The percentage of homes worldwide with cooling is expected to increase from 36 per cent — coincidentally, the same share as in B.C. — to 60 per cent by 2050, and you can bet Canada’s westernmost province will be contributing to that trend. Just ask anyone in a west-facing Vancouver condo: heat pumps can save lives.
What’s more, communications research has shown that when it comes to fighting climate change, a sense of self-efficacy — the idea that I can do something to help — is often what people find most encouraging. Electric vehicle (EV) and heat pump incentives are a way for governments to empower the individual, to put into their hands a solution to climate change (not to mention, inflationary energy bills).
Yes, the federal government already offers support for both EVs and heat pumps, but the manner in which it does so could not provide a better study in contrasts. With EVs, the program is straightforward and accessible. With heat pumps, it’s confusing and onerous.
Whether and how much of a heat pump incentive you receive from the federal government and your respective province depends on where you live, how much money you make, and what kind of heating system you have.
And as anyone who’s laboured through the Greener Homes grant can attest (one of multiple federal programs that provide heat pump incentives), the process is an arduous endeavour, requiring energy audits and months-long wait times to get your money back (which, of course, assumes you had the cash upfront in the first place, an obvious deterrent for low-income Canadians).
It’s the total opposite of the federal government’s seamless EV rebate: you buy an EV, you get $5,000 off at the point of sale. No applications. No audits. No waiting to get your money back. No conditions other than a reasonable requirement that the car is under a certain dollar amount. Canada’s most popular EV models are eligible, and the cap forces automakers to keep their prices in check.
After carbon pricing, EV rebates are likely the next best-known climate policy this government has implemented. About 45 per cent of Canadians are aware of the federal incentive program, which, in a democracy where very few federal policies ever rise out of obscurity, is higher than it sounds.
It’s also a well-liked measure with skyrocketing popularity that works: B.C. and Quebec have more EVs on the road in large part because they were the first provinces to offer rebates before the federal one existed.
Perhaps one silver lining coming out of the recent carbon pricing debacle is that, right now, heat pumps are having a moment. If the federal government makes its heat pump program as simple and widely accessible to Canadians as its EV rebate, it may have one more winning policy on its hands that Canadians will actually hear about.
And together, they might tell the simple story this government so desperately needs: “EVs and heat pumps are the money-saving future of energy, and we’re here to help you get your hands on them — you leave the paperwork to us.”
Trevor Melanson is the communications director of Clean Energy Canada, a program at Simon Fraser University’s Centre for Dialogue. A former journalist, Trevor previously held editor roles at Canadian Business, Vancouver, and BCBusiness magazines.
Comments
The federal EV program doesn't even cover the tax people pay on the vehicles. To suggest this is some great initiative by the federal government is laughable.
As for heat pumps, for most of the country the grant should only qualify for cold climate models and there has to be a provision that the units are sized large enough so they actually heat down to -15C. Many HVAC contractors are now selling undersized units that qualify but barely heat homes to 0C and the bulk of heating is still being done by the fossil fuel furnace.
The question on a subsidy program isn't how big the subsidy is. The question is, does it motivate people to buy the thing the government wants them to buy? If it does, which the EV one seems to, then it's an effective subsidy and probably a good program. Arguably you actually want the subsidy to be at about the lowest level that will actually work.
As to heat pumps, while I take your point that any subsidy shouldn't apply to wimpy heat pumps that don't, like, heat a home, the point in the article remains strong: If nobody's heard of it and it's really hard to get and it isn't applied up front, it ain't gonna motivate anyone to buy the thing. The heat pumps it does apply to, it should just apply to--you buy the pump and it's cheaper, no muss, no fuss.
If messages must be reduced to 3 words, how about "Let's Not Fry".