Will a carbon price rebrand help Trudeau win over the public?

To fend off Conservative attacks, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is planning an information campaign about the benefits of the carbon price rebate in addition to a rebrand of the contentious policy.

The rebrand does not yet have an exact plan but Canada’s National Observer has learned that beyond trying to convince banks to clearly label the carbon price rebate when it is deposited, the government is also planning an information campaign to boost awareness of the carbon tax’s benefits, expected to roll out ahead of tax season. The campaign would be part of the Canada Revenue Agency’s (CRA) efforts to alert Canadians about rebates they’re entitled to.

Each year, the CRA runs ads promoting various tax credits and rebates, ranging from the Canada child benefit to home accessibility tax credits. This year in the face of growing misinformation about the carbon price rebate, a concerted effort is being made to inform people about the money they’re entitled to if they file their taxes.

The federal government must walk a fine line when mounting an information campaign. It is allowed to advertise its policies, but it has to remain non-partisan. With the carbon price deeply politicized, for Trudeau’s government to avoid breaking the rules, it will need to stay firmly on the side of providing information to the public.

Advertising spends of more than $250,000 are subject to mandatory review to ensure they align with government policy. Among the requirements are that the advertising is “objective, factual and explanatory,” does not include party slogans or images or give the “general impression or appear to promote political party interests” and does not include the name, voice or image of an MP or senator, among other rules.

“I think it's right to want to communicate the tax more effectively, but a marketing campaign that has a significant price tag associated with it definitely could end up hurting them more than helping them,” said University of Victoria associate professor James Rowe. “It just sets them up for another round of attacks.”

The expected attack could be Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre saying this is Trudeau spending government money to justify taking more money from Canadians. “It’s low-hanging fruit,” Rowe said.

Catherine McKenna, the former environment and climate change minister who served in Trudeau’s cabinet when the carbon price was designed and implemented, told Canada’s National Observer the federal government should advertise the benefits of carbon pricing. That’s because the risk of the public being misled about it is a bigger risk than Conservatives launching further attacks, she said.

"It is the government's job to ensure Canadians have the facts about carbon pricing to counter the misinformation that Pierre Poilievre is spouting,” she said. “They are entitled to know that the money raised goes directly back into their bank accounts so most families are better off, while Canada uses one of the most effective tools to tackle climate change."

Blood in the water

With Trudeau trailing in polls and some in his own party openly questioning his leadership, there’s blood in the water. He’ll have to tread carefully to avoid another hit, Rowe says.

By now the story is well known. Following months of Poilievre rallying support by promising to “axe the tax” in the face of inflation and the Atlantic Liberal caucus privately, and sometimes publicly, urging the government to soften the price on pollution’s impact on people to help re-election chances, Trudeau threw the caucus a bone. In October, he carved out exemptions for home heating oil, predominantly used in Atlantic Canada, explaining that his government listens and takes affordability concerns seriously.

That rationale went over like a lead balloon. Several Liberal MPs warned the Prime Minister’s Office that such a move would feed the Conservative narrative that the carbon price is driving inflation. As predicted, opponents of the federal government across the country pounced on the opportunity and demanded their own exemptions.

“We definitely did not do ourselves any favours with the exemption for home heating oil,” said British Columbia Liberal MP Patrick Weiler. “That was just — pardon the pun — adding fuel to the fire here.”

Like McKenna, Weiler believes the government should promote the carbon price policy even if there is a risk the Conservatives will criticize it because the greater risk in his view is the public not understanding the rebates they’re getting. There could also be an upside if the Conservatives launch a fresh round of attacks, he added.

“Even if that takes place, at least it will really centre the discussion on the rebates and the more we're talking about the rebates the better.

“Starting this campaign now, if the tea leaves are to be believed, gives at least a potentially year and a half until the next election for that information to really get out to people.”

Trudeau and his most senior ministers have repeatedly said there would be no more carveouts to the signature climate policy but in recent weeks, have conceded they’re losing the communication battle. Polls show most Canadians want the carbon price either scrapped or lowered, even though most Canadians receive more money back through rebates than they pay.

Misinformation about the carbon price, often spread by Poilievre, appears to be driving voters into the arms of the Conservatives, forcing the Liberals to plan a rebrand, as first reported by the Toronto Star.

For McKenna, changing the name of the rebate is a misdiagnosis of the problem. The problem, in her view, is a lack of message discipline.

“You have to go and defend this policy and you have to be out there talking about how people are getting money back and these Conservatives have no plan,” she said. “You have to do that every single day, and you have to not have 100 other messages.”

If the main criticism of the carbon price is that the public can’t bear further costs in the face of challenging economic headwinds, the government must make it clear it benefits most people, she said. When Trudeau paused the tax on home heating oil in Atlantic Canada citing affordability concerns, that “confuses people,” she said, because it undermines the argument that it puts more money into people’s pockets.

Catherine Abreu, founder of Destination Zero and a member of Canada’s Net-Zero Advisory Body, told Canada’s National Observer that if the government does pursue a communications strategy on its climate action, the messaging should go beyond the carbon price.

“There would be a lot of value in the government communicating to Canadians the ways in which their lives are already being positively impacted by action on climate change, and the fact that many climate solutions are already inherently more affordable than the alternatives,” she said. “It's challenging for an entity other than the government to tell that kind of story with the kind of gravitas and public reach that is needed.

“So I'm hoping this might be an exercise in helping Canadians understand why this is important and the ways in which it could positively affect their daily lives.”