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Mark Carney was made for this moment

The former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England has a demonstrated track record of staying cool under pressure. Is that what Canadians are looking for right now? Photo via Flickr/Bank of England 

Donald Trump isn’t joking about annexing Canada. That’s the message that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared with a group of business leaders at his hastily-convened “Canada-U.S. Economic Summit”, one that sought to address the growing threat posed by America’s president. In a so-called “hot mic” moment, Trudeau was heard saying that “Mr. Trump has it in mind that the easiest way to do it is absorbing our country and it is a real thing.”

In case it wasn’t already clear, the carbon tax election that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada have spent years preparing for isn’t going to happen. Instead, Canadians are being thrust — very much against their will — into a much more serious and sobering conversation: what, if anything, can we do to survive the threat posed by Trumpism? The next election will turn on who voters think is best positioned to help Canada weather this crisis, and maybe come out stronger on the other side. 

Mark Carney was made for this moment. His career has been defined by moments of high-profile leadership during major economic and political flashpoints in both Canada and Great Britain. As Governor of the Bank of Canada under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he helped steer this country through the biggest economic crisis it has ever faced. When Carney was appointed chair of the G20’s Financial Stability Board in 2011, Harper said that it was “a testament to his skills and to the strength of Canada’s financial system.” 

As Governor of the Bank of England, meanwhile, Carney tried to warn Britons about the economic risks associated with Brexit in the lead up to the vote. When they voted for it anyways, he aggressively cut interest rates and provided British banks with liquidity to avert a complete collapse in business and consumer confidence. Mission accomplished, more or less. 

Carney’s crisis experience doesn’t necessarily prepare him for dealing with Donald Trump and his threats to Canada’s sovereignty, if only because there’s almost nothing that could. Carney is used to operating in the more rational world of markets and data, neither of which have any purchase or pull in Trump’s political universe. Even so, the depth and diversity of Carney’s CV exposes the one-dimensionality of Poilievre’s entirely political resume — one that’s long on years and short on actual achievements. 

Canadians appear to already grasp this. A recent poll by Nanos Research shows that 39.6 per cent of Canadians consider Carney as “the most qualified leader to negotiate with Mr. Trump and his administration,” compared to just 26 per cent who preferred Poilieve. Pallas Data confirmed this momentum shift in its own poll, which shows a Mark Carney-led Liberal Party of Canada in a dead heat with Poilievre’s Conservatives at 37 per cent support. Suddenly, that election that Poilievre and his caucus have been begging for might not seem like such a good idea. 

None of this guarantees a Liberal victory, mind you. The Conservatives still have a Scrooge McDuck-sized vault of cash, and they’re already using it to portray Carney either as the second coming of Justin Trudeau or a representative of the Davos-Industrial complex. Expect to hear the “carbon tax Carney” nickname many, many times over the next few months. 

But this will be a tough sell for many Canadians, given what they already know about Carney and his background. He is no Michael Ignatieff, a relatively blank political slate onto which Conservatives can project their own highly negative story. Carney is a known commodity in Canada, especially in its business community, and there will be no shortage of testimonials from erstwhile conservatives to both his financial acumen and grace under pressure. 

So far, at least, Poilievre’s Conservatives and their proxies in the pundit class have responded by invoking criticisms of Carney from Brexiteers like Liz Truss, the short-lived British prime minister who nearly crashed that country’s economy with her reckless policies. This is remarkably thin ice for them to walk out on, given Poilievre and former leader Andrew Scheer’s own enthusiastic endorsements of Brexit at the time. If they were trying to underscore Carney’s good judgment, they couldn’t have done a much better job. 

Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives were coasting to a massive victory in the next election until Donald Trump started rattling the world's biggest sabre at Canada. Now, can they rise to the occasion — or will they shrink from the moment?

This hints at Poilievre’s key weakness: at a moment where the country clearly craves more serious leadership, his brand of sloganeering populism and own-the-Libs politicking simply isn’t fit for purpose. This wasn’t as apparent or important before November’s American election returned Trump to power. Back then, Canadians were deeply tired of Trudeau and wanted something, anything different, even if the polls showed Poilievre’s personal popularity lagged well behind the desire for change. Telling voters that their country was broken worked a lot better when there wasn’t an American president actively trying to break it. 

It’s not clear that Poilievre has the ability to shift gears. Can he drop the petulance and relentless partisanship that defines his political brand and focus on the real threat to our prosperity? Or has the well-cultivated hatred of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals so thoroughly poisoned the Conservative Party of Canada that it will keep blaming the government for the threats we must resist? The answers to those questions will help decide the next election. But one thing is already clear: in trying to salt the earth for the Liberals, Poilievre may have unwittingly sown the seeds of his own once-unlikely defeat.

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