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Carney won’t win hearts with another elitist climate plan

Mark Carney at an informal campaign stop on Feb. 16, 2025. Photo from Facebook/Mark Carney

In the space of a mere few weeks, the Canadian political terrain has shifted dramatically. Between Prime Minister Trudeau’s imminent departure and Trump’s attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty, a Conservative majority led by Pierre Poilievre in the coming months no longer seems like a foregone conclusion. In an otherwise bleak global landscape, many in Canada are breathing a sigh of relief that polls are showing a stunning collapse in the Conservatives’ lead, especially when poll respondents are asked to consider a Mark Carney-led Liberal Party.

And yet, I remain nervous. While I am among those delighted to see the polls tightening, Carney is not without his vulnerabilities. And let us recall all the excitement when Kamala Harris took over the helm of the U.S. Democrats last summer and the polls caught positive Harris-Walz momentum. But it plateaued too soon. Her message failed to sufficiently excite (and in many cases alienated a progressive base). Trump still won.

Carney’s climate plan, in particular, risks handing fodder to Poilievre while failing to captivate the climate-anxious voter. 

Carney’s record indicates that he “gets” climate. He purports to understand the threat. He has served as a U.N. Special Envoy for Climate Action. That’s the good news, and makes for a stark contrast with the Conservative leader. And Carney is clearly better than the other leading Liberal leadership candidate — Chrystia Freeland — when it comes to climate; Freeland has been widely seen within the climate movement as the principal blocker of more ambitious climate policy within Trudeau’s cabinet. (At the time of writing, the third-ranked Liberal leadership hopeful, Karina Gould, has yet to release a climate platform.)

Much has been made of Carney’s pivot to end the consumer carbon tax. Fine — I never put much stock in the tax as a major reducer of emissions relative to its huge political cost. And Carney is right to refocus on the industrial carbon price. It’s what he's proposing — and not proposing — in place of the consumer carbon price that has me worried.

First off, I challenge you to read the Carney climate plan (you can find it here) and keep your eyes from glazing over. It is the product of wonky, technocratic brains that you would never want on the doorstep. The Carney plan calls for an improved “output-based pricing system” for industrial emitters; a “carbon border adjustment mechanism” to prevent “carbon leakage” and ensure fairness for “energy-intensive, trade-exposed sectors”; an “efficiency mandate for low-temperature industrial heat”; investment tax credits; “carbon contracts for difference to de-risk climate investments”; implementing a “transition taxonomy” to guide sustainable investments in priority sectors; and mandating “climate risk disclosure for companies across Canada.”

You still with me?  

I’m not opposed to many of these measures. But overall, this plan doubles down on an approach that has failed to meaningfully bend the curve on our carbon pollution. There is a heavy emphasis on “incentives” to encourage households and business to do the right thing, along with a deep and abiding faith in market-based solutions — a belief that if only the private sector had to properly account for and disclose its climate risks, while being further enticed with the right mix of price and tax signals, businesses will finally transition as the science says is necessary.  

Nope. This is a futile approach that will never see us achieve the speed and scale of what the climate emergency demands. 

Carney’s climate plan, in particular, risks handing fodder to Poilievre while failing to captivate the climate-anxious voter. @sethdklein.bsky.social writes

One would think that Carney’s own ill-fated attempt to get global financial firms to voluntarily adhere to climate commitments — an effort that has largely collapsed in recent months as major banks and investment firms have withdrawn from the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net-Zero (GFANZ) Carney spearheaded, while showing no signs of tempering their fossil fuel investments — would lead to a rethink of this model. Yet his platform gives no such indication.

Absent from Carney’s climate plan is a clear connection to jobs and inequality. There is no grand industrial strategy here, nor a compelling and imaginative counter-offer to workers and communities that currently feel tied to the fossil fuel sector. Surprisingly, Carney’s climate plan (so far anyway) does not include mention of the Youth Climate Corps, even though the Liberal government is currently engaged in national consultations on the idea and despite the Young Liberals of Canada making the establishment of a YCC one of their top priority calls to the Liberal leadership candidates.

The focus on esoteric and technocratic policy not only fails to excite most voters and alienates many working people (a failing about which I’ve written previously), it also reinforces the Conservative critique that the Liberal approach to climate is elitist.  

Carney’s climate plan also lacks passion and emotion about the urgency to confront this generational challenge. There is nothing about how this crisis poses a severe threat to the people and places we love.

We are also not hearing Carney name the fossil fuel industry itself as the culprits who are blocking progress on this task of our lives, nor has he indicated a preparedness to bring on the fight with these corporations, let alone tax their windfall profits. On the contrary, in a recent interview Carney did with CBC’s Rosemary Barton he expresses support for new fossil fuel infrastructure, including a west-east oil pipeline. Now that will surely give many climate-concerned voters pause.

Either Carney needs to up his climate game, or failing that, this could be an opening for the federal NDP, if only they choose to claim it. There are a few million climate-anxious voters in Canada — people who rank climate as one of their top concerns — and how they decide to vote could make the difference in a number of ridings, including some key ones the NDP hopes to retain or acquire. As “anybody-but-Conservative” voters wrestle, as they always do, with how to strategically cast their ballots, the NDP would be wise to position themselves as the party that will prioritize the protection of “the people and places we love.” If Carney is ceding territory on the left, that oughta be good news for the NDP. And yet, so far the polls are telling a different story.  

The current Trump-induced crisis is no time to beat a path back to the old fossil fuel economy — it’s a chance to leap into the new. It’s not a time to merely incentivize progress — it’s a time that demands ambitious national industrial policy to rapidly re-localize and decarbonize our economy, thereby making us less tied to the U.S. economy. If Carney remains stuck offering more of the same, Jagmeet Singh could and should offer emergency leadership. Whether he will remains to be seen.

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