Former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau famously compared Canada-U.S. relations to sleeping next to an elephant. “No matter how friendly and even tempered… one is affected by every twitch and grunt,” he said 55 years ago — before climate change was a broadly accepted and accelerating phenomenon. Today, that same elephant holds the biggest levers to slow global catastrophe, and the twitches and grunts are the least of our worries.
As the American election creeps closer with two radically different visions for the country, backed by fiercely polarized political factions, the U.S. appears poised for another tense election cycle. From a climate perspective, a second Donald Trump presidency would be a “disaster,” says University of Victoria associate professor James Rowe. “It’s drill baby, drill.”
If Vice-President Kamala Harris is able to secure the Democratic nomination, as appears likely, and she is able to defeat Trump in the election, it’s expected she would continue Biden-era climate policies. While there’s room for improvement, Rowe says it’s “far better” than the Trump alternative.
“Climate is about physics — it doesn't care about politics — but we do live in a world where we have to relate to political dynamics,” Rowe said. “Every degree matters, so having parties in power that at least believe in climate change and are taking genuine steps to address it, even if those steps are not enough… is better.”
Keeping up with the Americans
Since 2015, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rose to power, much of his tenure has been reacting to the United States’s political whiplash. For many observers, what the U.S. does on climate either shrinks or expands the realm of possibilities for Canadian policymakers. For instance, the workhorse of Canada’s plan to slash emissions are a series of tax credits unveiled in Budget 2023 that were a direct response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
If Harris beats Trump, she would be the fourth U.S. president Trudeau works with.
First, Trudeau collaborated for about a year with former President Barack Obama. The ink on the Paris Agreement was still drying when the two countries issued a joint statement outlining how Canada and the United States would coordinate climate action.
Cooperating on climate was short-lived. Once former President Donald Trump took the Oval Office, Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, and according to The New York Times, rolled back more than 100 separate environmental rules, unleashing significant greenhouse gas emissions.
Most recently, President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is arguably the most significant piece of climate legislation in the world, committing hundreds of billions of dollars to the energy transition. Trudeau was forced to respond with the 2023 federal budget introducing billions of dollars of clean energy tax credits designed to compete in the automotive, energy and mining sectors, among others.
Harris vs Trump
If Harris is able to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination for president and wins the general election, Canada should expect additions to the Inflation Reduction Act as part of a continuation of the plan Biden put forward. If Trump wins a second term, it is expected the Inflation Reduction Act would be gutted and the U.S. would pull out of the Paris Agreement again.
“The U.S. election will be one of the most consequential moments determining the world's ability to limit warming to 1.5 degrees,” Caroline Broutillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, told Canada’s National Observer, calling the choice “clear.”
“Trump’s Project 2025 would tear down the regulatory and investment progress made in past years,” she said — whereas Harris “has been one of the key architects and promoters of the Inflation Reduction Act.”
Project 2025 is nothing short of a plan to dismantle the administrative and regulatory powers of the federal government. In roughly 900 pages written by right wing think tank the Heritage Foundation, the proposal outlines how a Republican-led federal government could shift federal institutions to the right by reclassifying bureaucrats as political appointees to strip them of job protections and ensure party loyalty.
Trump has attempted to distance himself from the plan, but key chapters were written by influential, Trump-affiliated officials like Russell Vought, who currently serves as the Republican National Committee’s policy director.
Harris, by contrast, has consistently and publicly supported climate action.
“Vice President Harris has been integral to the Biden administration’s most important climate accomplishments and has a long track record as an impactful climate champion,” said Lena Moffitt, executive director of climate group Evergreen Action, in a statement.
“From establishing one of the first environmental justice units in the country when she was the district attorney of San Francisco, to taking on Big Oil in the courts as California Attorney General… Vice President Harris has fought to hold polluters accountable and deliver for the hardest-hit communities her entire career.”
In a Substack post on Monday, prominent American environmental advocate Bill McKibben threw his support behind Harris, saying this election would be crucial to the planet’s future.
“We measure our physical life in trips around the sun, and we measure our national life in four-year blocks,” he wrote. “The current one expires in 106 days, and the one after that will take us to the end of the decade.
“I don’t think it’s hyperbole… to say that this next term will be decisive, our last chance to operate with anything like a free hand in the fight to cut those emissions.”
Harris’ climate credentials
When Harris first ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 2019, she crafted an ambitious climate plan that proposed US$10 trillion in spending to reach net-zero by 2045, promised to hold big polluters financially accountable for their environmental harms, and pledged to protect 30 per cent of the country’s land and water (a target later enshrined in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework countries, including Canada, and agreed to in 2022).
Perhaps, the most significant proposal in her 2019 platform was to convene a meeting of major emitters, to build an international alliance aimed at managing the phase-out of fossil fuel production.
That is a remarkably similar idea to some of the most ambitious climate initiatives discussed in international climate change negotiations, like the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative developed by prominent Canadian climate advocate Tzeporah Berman, or the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, of which Quebec is a leader.
McKibben called Harris “pretty darned good” on climate, but conceded her climate plan arrived at a time that was “pretty near peak-Greta,” with Fridays for the Future major school strikes occurring only a couple months before.
“So don’t look for her to be stressing all these positions in the next three months,” McKibben wrote.
Comments
Can anyone imagine what the end result would be if Trump wins a 2nd term, and here in Canada that Pierre "Snake Oil Salesman" Poilievre is elected? We already have seen that the CPC refused to even acknowledge that climate change is real. With both lunatics at the helm at the same time, it would be a free for all for the fossil fuel industry to ramp up emissions, more pipelines no one wants and dismantling more climate and environmental protections. A climate change disaster in the making.
I am sure that Harris will take care of insuring Trump is permanently sidelined via the next election.
Here in Canada, we the people are still very much in control of our own destiny.
We have 15 months to insure same.
Let France, Brazil before, and the USA soon, be examples of standing united and strong against the destructive forces of unmitigated right-wing policy including fossil fuel advocacy.
And don't be fooled by words like "deregulation" meant to sound "good" and go right over the heads of the politically uninformed masses.
There is another possibility. Poilievre could be elected a year after Harris wins and rules for nine months.
A Harris win will knock some of the air out of the Conservative's sails and force them to address climate change (likely as a back of the line laggard) or have repercussions on bilateral trade. My sense is that many Conservative MPs were counting on kissing Trump's ass.
It would be delicious seeing a strong liberal woman with great power pushing back against Poilievre with her little finger.
But of course, we need to try to keep the Conservatives in opposition. A Harris win down south, especially if she can secure a majority in both houses of Congress, and if her tenure in the White House starts on a positive note based on building for the people and the planet, not tearing down government on corporate donor's advice, then her example could be an inspiration to Canadians because we are in a uniquely close position to the giant, who can be very friendly and who reaches out sometimes in key partnerships.
Trump will wreck all of that, and Poilievre will join him with his own little jackhammer.
Like the USA, we have poverty, unemployment, lack of housing, health care crisis, supply issues, even education problems, but our worst problem is Climate Change that threatens all of us. So, with Harris, we may have to deal with American protectionism, but at least we will be able to work together on climate change -- as long as we do not have to deal with the conservative party.
We could do with some protectionism of our own because we are also much too dependent on China: bringing jobs to America will also be good for us.
Another consideration is that Kamala Harris is becoming a solid repudiation to those who support and finance fascism when it benefits them. Peter Theil put JD Vance on the Trump ticket from behind the scenes, using money to influence Trump and the RNC officials carrying his golf bag. Elon Musk has turned out to be a dictator-supporting funder after first portrating himself as some kind of genious who single handedly changed the world through technology. In fact, he only had the money to back the actual brains behind Tesla and StarLink, and is now more like a ranting adolescent boy who still reads science fiction comics.
Musk's promise of $45 million a month to Trump was quickly followed by Biden announcing he us standing do
...down from the Democratic Party nomination. Twenty minutes later he gave his supprt to Kamala Harris. Twenty four hours later Harris was tops in the news, stole Trump's thunder and generated $~80 million in donations with another $~50 million to follow the next day.
Harris has a tough fight ahead, but a genuine shot of winning, and with good rule, perhaps even two terms.
It was very satisfying seeing the American Right, the fascists in waiting and the big money people behind them panicking and thrashing when their entire campaign strategy was blown to bits in a 24 hour period. Moreover, the Harris ticket will likely inspire minority communities and moderate women to vote in large numbers for a Democratuc majority in Congress too.
The icing on the cake is Biden's promise yesterday to place Supreme Court reform on the priority list. There us no feasible reason for Harris, if elected, to not continue that pursuit. She is young and energetic enough to apply pressure on thar reform for years if necessary.
It's been a long time since Canadians were as excited about a leadership candidate up here.